1/6/2010 10:22:00 AM Town officials optimistic for '10 Looking ahead
By Cheryl Hartz Reporter
Those who deal directly with Prescott Valley's economic development expressed everything from caution to excitement for 2010, but the strongest message coming through was optimism.
The Town of Prescott Valley's Community Development Director Richard Parker is leading the positive-thinking charge.
"I'm an optimist. If you see something in a positive light, most often it will turn out positive," Parker said.
The town benefited from several major business additions in 2009 - including Hobby Lobby, Fuddruckers, Fletcher Tire & Auto Service, CVS Pharmacy and Maverik, along with the expansion of Fry's and Roberts Marketplace - and Parker predicts commercial development will continue.
"Commercial development replaced and augmented the downturn in the residential construction industry," he said. "It kept some people busy and that's a good thing."
Marnie Uhl, CEO/President for the Prescott Valley Chamber of Commerce, mentioned "all sorts of good stuff" concerning programs the chamber offers to serve the business community and keep the economy going.
"We'll slowly recover from the economic slump and continue to support the creation of new jobs," Uhl said. "We'll take an active role in watching legislation so it doesn't hurt our business community."
She said she's really excited about the new entrepreneurial class at Bradshaw Mountain High School, in which business owners speak about their own areas of expertise to students. A business academy for community members is ongoing, as well.
Uhl encourages area residents to shop locally and use local services. She noted that chamber membership remains stable, with some businesses closing because of finance, but others starting or expanding.
"We're doing good," she said. "People are coming out and being more active than before. Every mixer is scheduled for 2010, with some co-sponsoring."
Town of Prescott Valley Economic Development Manager Greg Fister, who admits to no special ability to see into the future, still offered his "best guess" for 2010.
"I see it as a 'hold firm' year," Fister said. "Many of the retailers or retailers' representatives are starting to stir a little bit, but I think the retail market still will be sleepy. We need to get the housing market straightened out so these retailers can have some confidence in the local and state markets. Until that happens, they will stay on the sidelines."
Fister did indicate some companies are looking ahead to 2011 and 2012 and "liking what they see."
Parker already foresees a continued interest in housing starts and people moving to Prescott Valley.
"Prescott Valley is a nice place to live, and people see the advantage to making a purchase now. We have seen people coming in to invest in retirement recently, for a couple of years down the road," Parker said. "If you talk to the StoneRidge folks, they will tell you it (2009) wasn't that bad."
"No, it wasn't," agreed Brad Swisher, Division President for SunCor's Land Development Department at StoneRidge. "We did have a good 2009, better than 2008. We're seeing positive changes in the homebuilding market." (See sidebar for more information on these changes.)
Twice weekly he drives through the area just to "keep visual contact with what is and isn't taking place," he said.
He said PVDEF classifies potential businesses three ways: inquiries, suspects and prospects.
An inquiry simply is seeking information about potential relocation or starting a new business.
A suspect already has received data and come back with an identified project.
A prospect physically has come to the community with site or building specific plans.
"We have four suspects and three prospects right now," Marks said.
He said the economy has stretched projects from 6-9 months to 12-18 months in decision time.
"They haven't cancelled, but they have expanded their timeline," he said.
In the three to five years before the slump, he said, the town had a pipeline or back supply of new investments and companies coming in.
"Now there's not a large amount of pipeline," Marks said.
He said he sees the first half of the year as "somewhat slow," with companies conducting research and gathering data while looking at federal stimulus programs.
"The state economy is not projecting 2010 as a real lively time. Things may start to develop by the third quarter of 2010. Most potential projects will come in the fourth quarter of 2010 or the first quarter of 2011," Marks said. "The Cap and Trade Bill will have major impacts at what companies and businesses are doing."
He said on a nationwide basis, about 36 percent of companies surveyed anticipated employment increases or growth by the end of 2010, while 46 percent said they would be stable with no growth and 18 percent indicated a decline.
"The potential growth and expansion we have could very well be from consolidations," he said, noting companies increasingly turn to automation and technology to increase performance. "It can be recovery, but a jobless recovery that requires retraining and redirection of the workforce. Business models have changed."
That will lead to an increase in college and tech school enrollments, he believes.
"We'll always have cycles. This cycle will have a flat bottom, not a V or U-shaped bottom, so it will take some years to edge ourselves out," Marks said.
He experienced the oil boom and bust in Oklahoma - an "ugly" time.
"But many of those energy-type states have done better than other areas," he said. "Diversifying is the most important thing we've learned. While one industry is in a downturn, another - green building and renewable energy - are areas of potential growth."
He said local governments can't dive into those projects, but private business can.
"We have a lot of positive attributes in our region," Marks said. "We just need to find companies who want to expand or relocate, keep pitching what can be done and what they gain from becoming part of our community."
